Lucky Streaks 42.60% ROI 2010
It's Real Science...Not Fiction
Knowing this first...80% of the time, the market and individual stocks are up 1 day and down the next; and the remaining 20% of the time the market or stocks have streaks of consecutive up or down days.
So, I built a trading strategy around "luck" and its cousin "lucky streaks" and achieved a return on investment in 2010 of 42.60%.
There were 6 contributing factors for the spectacular year, which I cover in my new book "How to Make 25-50% Gambling in Stocks", coming soon in 2012. click here.
6 THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW
1. Knowing the market is the World's Biggest Casino.
2. Proper deployment of cash. (scale-in stocks; down 3 consecutive days; and increments of 5% decline from original buy point.)
3. Risk management. (no more than 10% invested in any one stock)
4. Taking profits. (early and often)
5. Keeping losses small.
6. And most of all "luck".
I learned early in my life that I rather be "lucky" than good. Although skill, knowledge, and ability played a supporting role, luck was always present and had the last word. I suffered only four minor losses out of 200 or more trades, even at times when I deployed cash inappropriately luck was on my side.
The times that I was the most nervous was the times that I made the most money. I realized by just playing the strategy it wasn't important whether I was right or wrong....the strategy and luck took care of the results. If you followed my trades on Twitter.com then you know what I'm talking about.
There were several times that I captured 10-20 point gains and then repurchased the same stock the same day below my original buy point and sold it again the same day for another 10 points. Although, I'm not a day-trader that sits all day watching my computer screen, I am committed to taking profits whenever I have them before the market takes them away.
I know most people don't believe in luck. That's because luck will fool most people into believing that it was their intellect or ability that made them successful and luck had nothing to do with it.
I remember a couple years ago watching a CNBC special, Question and Answer session with Warren Buffet and Bill Gates at Harvard University Business School, when a graduate student walked to the microphone and asked Bill Gates, "How much did luck play in the success of Microsoft? Bill Gates answered, "More than what it should have." (After hearing that comment I said to myself, "now there's an honest man that's not fooled by luck.")
Blind Luck- comes in the form of good and bad luck. It is defined as a force that brings good fortune or adversity; or a set of random events or circumstances that work for or against an individual.
Lucky Streaks- a series of random events that are continuous for a period of consecutive days, or consecutive years of wins or losses in a row. There is no way to predict when it begins or ends or an explanation or numerical equation to explain the occurrences.
From my years of study and observation, it appears that blind luck isn't a discriminator of persons. It favors the skilled and the unskilled equally so. It's like the metaphor, "even a trash can gets a steak every now and then," which means even a novice can have beginner's luck and win a single event, like throwing a lucky punch in the last round that knocks out the champion.
But blind luck in its raw state can not form a string of consecutive wins in a row sustained over a period of time without the help of some other factors. And as gamblers that's what we are looking for... consecutive wins.
Enter its cousin "Lucky Streaks." Lucky Streaks favors a certain set of skills, ability, hard work, passion, experience, instincts, and discipline that must be present at the time of the occurrence. It also contains other known and unknown elements that are conducive for consecutive wins or losses in a row to be sustained over a period of time.
Some Lucky Streaks are so extreme and rare in nature that they occur as anomalies. Take for example, University of Connecticut's Women basketball team winning streak of 90 games in a row that ended on Dec 31, 2010 by Stanford University.
The University of Connecticut streak surpassed UCLA's Men Basketball team 88 games in a row, which ended Jan 1974.
UConn's coach, said it best, "to win that many games in a row required ability, hard work, and "luck."
I have come to realize in a humble way that luck plays a major role in the stock market, sporting events, or any profession that engages in repetitive or random activities.
To take advantage of lucky streaks, you must position yourself in favorable situations and be in sync with the market...believing the market is always right.
When you're out of sync you'll find yourself hoping, forcing, and struggling.... setting yourself up for a streak of bad luck.
Although it's impossible to predict when "luck" or "lucky streaks" will occur, being aware of such events can help develop a gambling instinct that becomes an enormous "edge" when trading stocks or any other activity in life.
Remember, luck is always present and always has the last word." To understand this saying, is the key to making 25-50% returns.
The following is a historical listing of lucky streaks in a variety of events.
1. DOW Jones Consecutive Up Days Streaks
The table below shows the number of days in each daily up streak from May 26, 1986 - November 14, 2008; trading days 28,138. The most common streak was a 1 day streak where the index went up one day and down the next. This happened 3,003 times.
2. The longest up days in the DOW 13 consecutive days in a row, in 1986
In a Row
Streak #of Times Days up Start Date End Date
13 1 13 December 31, 1986 January 20, 1987
12 2 24 November 18, 1970 December 7, 1970
11 4 44 December 17, 1991 January 3, 1992
10 8 80 November 1, 1996 November 15, 1996
9 16 144 May 7, 1996 May 20, 1996
8 43 344 March 28, 2007 April 10, 2007
7 64 448 April 11, 2007 April 20, 2007
6 153 918 November 9, 2006 November 17, 2006
5 249 1245 July 10, 2007 July 17, 2007
4 502 2008 April 14, 2008 April 18, 2008
3 961 2883 August 25, 2008 August 28, 2008
2 1763 3526 October 29, 2008 October 31, 2008
1 3003 3003 November 12, 2008 November 13, 2008
3. Other Market Statistical averages by years
Overall the market closed up 53% of the time; 1970-2009
The average consecutive up day in a row is 1
2 or more up days in a row occurred 27% of the time on average; 1990-2009
2 or more up days in a row occurred 25% of the time on average; 2000-2009
79% of the time when the market is up the next day it will be a down day
A string of 5 up days in the average year 3%; 2000-2009
4. DOW Jones Consecutive Down Days Streaks
The DJIA decreased in value on 13,313 of those trading days. There were only 11 streaks worse than the recent 8 consecutive day decrease from September 20, 2008 to October 10, 2008 also occurring on 18 other occasions
In a Row
Streak #of Times Days Down Start Date End Date
12 2 24 January 8, 1968 January 24, 1968
11 3 33 September 19, 1974 October 4, 1974
10 2 20 July 9, 1963 July 23, 1963
9 4 36 February 8, 1978 February 22, 1978
8 19 152 September 30, 2008 October 10, 2008
7 49 343 July 5, 2002 July 16, 2002
6 94 564 August 8, 2007 August 16, 2007
5 211 1055 January 14, 2008 January 22, 2008
4 399 1596 May 29, 2008 June 4, 2008
3 891 2673 November 7, 2008 November 12, 2008
2 1748 3496 November 4, 2008 November 6, 2008
1 3321 3321 November 14, 2008 November 13, 2008
5. Other Market Statistical Averages by years
Overall the market closed down 47% of the time; 1970-2009
The average consecutive down days in a row; 1
2 Consecutive down days in a row occurred 23% of days last 40 years
The average consecutive up days; 1
79% of the time when you have down day the next day will be up day.
A string of 5 consecutive losing days in a row is rare; occurred 2% last 40 years.
6. Blackjack Consecutive Streaks in a Row
Lucky streaks of 2 or more occurs 20% of the time.
The average consecutive losing streak in a row is 4.
The average consecutive winning streak is 3.83.
The longest abnormal consecutive winning streak in a row 32.
The longest abnormal consecutive losing streak in a row 20.
80% of the time you will win a hand then lose the next hand
80% of thee time you will lose a hand then win the next hand
7. The Meanest and Longest Streaks
137 consecutive wins in a row Miami men tennis 1957-1964
109 consecutive wins in a row Penn State women volleyball 2007-2010
92 North Carolina women soccer 1990-94
89 Connecticut women basketball 2008-present
89 Standford women tennis 2003-07
88 UCLA men basketball 1971-1974
70 Connecticut women basketball 2001-03
8. Horse Racing Longest Consecutive wins in a row
Camarero, foaled in 1951, was undefeated in 56 races in Puerto Rico from April 19, 1953 to his first defeat on August 1, 1955 (in his career to 1956, he won 73 of 77 races)
9. Longest High School scoring 100 points or more in consecutive games
Yates High School in Houston,Texas scored 100 points or more in 15 consecutive games in 2009 and ended in January 2010.
10. Longest Losing Streak in College Football
Prairie View A&M, Prairie View, Texas lost 80 consecutive games in a row.The losing streak started 1989 and ended in September 27, 1998.
11. Longest NCAA Division 1 football Consecutive wins a row
School Streak Years Spoiler
Oklahoma 47 1953-1957 Notre Dame
Washington 39 1908-1914 Oregon State
12. Longest Home game streak in college football
The Miami University Hurricanes won 58 straight home games, lasting from 1985 to 1994.
13. NBA Basketball Consecutive game wins a row
L.A. Lakers 33 straight games in a row 11/05/71-01/07/72
Houston Rockets 22 games straight games 01/29/08- 03/18/08
14. NFL Longest Consecutive game wins a row
Indianapolis Colts 21 and New Orleans Saints 21 2008
New England Patriots 21 games 2003-2004
15. Longest Consecutive horse race wins in a row
Colt won 56 races in a row April 1953-Aug 1955
16. Boxing Longest Consecutive wins a row
Julio Caesar Chavez 88 wins in a row
17. Track and Field Longest Consecutive wins a row
Ed Moses 122 straight wins 400 hurdles in April 1977 Sept 1987
18. Longest Consecutive Losing streaks in a row
Denver Nuggets and the Vancouver grizzles 23 games 1997-1998
Northwester University 34 losing games in a row 1979-1982
19. Major Baseball Longest Consecutive wins in a row
1935 Chicago Cubs, 21 consecutive wins in a row
2002 Oakland Athletics, 20 consecutive wins in a row
1916 New York Giants, 26 consecutive wins in a row (After 14 wins, they had a tied ballgame.)
20. Minor League Baseball
The record for the most innings ever played in a single professional game is 33,
occurring in a minor-league game in 1981.
21. Major League Baseball longest innings and time played
The longest American League game, and tied for the longest major league game by innings which ended with one team winning, was a 7-6 victory by the Chicago White Sox over the
Milwaukee Brewers in 25 innings, at Comiskey Park in Chicago in 1984. The official time of the entire 25-inning game was 8 hours 6 minutes, also a major league record.
22. Longest consecutive wins college basketball Division I
1971-1974 UCLA Bruins won 88 consecutive games.
23. Longest consecutive wins college basketball Jr college
Indian Hills Community college 89 wins from 1997-1999
The longest game by innings in Major League Baseball was a 1-1 tie in the National
League between the Boston Braves and Brooklyn Dodgers in 26 innings. at Braves Field in
Boston on May 1, 1920. It had become too dark to see the ball (fields did not have
lights yet and the sun was setting), and the game was considered a draw. September 11, 1974, the St. Louis Cardinals won a marathon night game against the New York Mets, after 7 hours; 25 innings
On April 15, 1968, the Houston Astros defeated the Mets 1-0 in a 24-inning game at the Houston Astrodome. Official time was 6 hours.
24. Baseball Game's Longest consecutive innings that ended in a tie.
The longest American League game to end in a tie was a 24-inning contest between the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Athletics on July 21, 1945. The teams were tied 1-1 when the game was called due to darkness.
The longest game to end in a scoreless tie was a National League contest between the Cincinnati Reds and Brooklyn Dodgers on September 11, 1946. The teams went 19 innings forcing the game to be called due to darkness.
College baseball game the longest consecutive innings.
The longest college baseball game was played between Texas and Boston College on May 30, 2009, in a regional NCAA Division I Baseball Championship tournament game at Austin,
Texas. Texas — which was designated the visiting team despite playing on its home field won the game, 3-2, in 25 innings. The game lasted 7 hours.
25. Track and Field Longest Consecutive wins
Ed Moses: The American holds the record for the most consecutive wins in any track and field athletic event. He dominated the 400m hurdles between September 1977 and June 1987, when he had 122 straight victories (107 in finals).
Jahangir Khan: The Pakistani squash player set the standard for winning streaks when, as a 17-year-old in 1981, he started out on an incredible 555-match winning run which went on for five years. It is the longest winning streak in professional sporting history.
26. Professional Boxing longest Consecutive Winning
Julio Cesar Chavez: Light-welterweight Chavez had 88 straight professional wins in the ring before drawing with Pernell Whitaker in 1993. The Mexican won a total of six world titles at three weight divisions and finished his career with 104-5-2 record, including 80 knockouts. Rocky Marciano has the best heavyweight winning streak with all 49 of his pro fights ending in victory. He is also the only heavyweight champion in history to win every one of his professional bouts. Puerto Rican super-bantamweight Wilfredo Gomez has the longest knockout winning streak, with a hard-hitting 32.
27. Horse Racing Longest Consecutive wins in a row
Camarero, foaled in 1951, was undefeated in 56 races in Puerto Rico from April 19, 1953 to his first defeat on August 1, 1955 (in his career to 1956, he won 73 of 77 races).
28. High school basketball Longest Consecutive wins in a row
SAN ANGELO, Texas — AUSTIN — 2009, The 100-point streak ended. Houston Yates’ second straight Class 4A state championship will stand in the record books forever.
29. NBA Basketball Player scored 50 point games consecutive games in a row
Los Angeles Lakers' Luke Walton fouls Memphis Grizzlies' Mike Miller during the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game Thursday, March 22, 2007, in Memphis, Tenn. The Lakers won 121-119.
The last Laker with three consecutive 50-point games was Hall of Famer Elgin Baylor in December 1962. Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain are the only other players with three straight 50-point games. Chamberlain has the record with seven consecutive 50-point games, which he did in December 1961.
30. Longest consecutive passes without interception
Tom Brady 319 passes in 2010 season without an interception
31. Longest women college basketball consecutive game winning streak.
University of Connecticut 89 games in a row 2010 season
32. NFL running back with the longest carries without a fumble.
Atlanta Falcons Michael Turner had 417 carries without a fumble ended on December 27 against the New Orleans, Saints losing 17-14
33. Texas State Lottery Longest Consecutive Streak
Texas has the longest streak 50 consecutive drawings without a winner. April 10 2010.
34. Tom Brady quarterback of the New England Patriots had a string of 340 passes in a row without an interception until it was snapped on January 16, 2011 in a playoff game by the New York Jets. The Jets went on to win the game 28-21.
35. Billy Walters sports better and gambler on Basketball and Football games has made millions and has never had a losing year. The longest gambling winning streak on basketball and football. Catch the interview on 60 minutes January 16, 2011. http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/60minutes/main3415.shtml